The hottest research report predicts that China's

2022-08-24
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Research report forecast: China's CPI is difficult to exceed 5% in 2012

research report forecast: China's CPI is difficult to exceed 5% in 2012

China Construction machinery information

Guide: it is still difficult to judge whether CPI has peaked this year, and what will happen to inflation next year? A few days ago, the joint research group of the National University of Singapore and Xiamen University released a report that China's economy grew by 8.91% in 2012, and the CPI growth fell back to 4.93%. Next year's CPI is difficult to exceed 5%. About this year's economic situation, on

it is still difficult to judge whether CPI has peaked this year, and what will happen to inflation next year? A few days ago, the joint research group of the National University of Singapore and Xiamen University released a report that China's economy grew by 8.91% in 2012, and the CPI growth fell back to 4.93%

next year's CPI is difficult to exceed 5%

with regard to this year's economic situation, the above report believes that China's GDP will grow by 9.28% and CPI will increase by 5.34% in 2011. Compared with the CPI forecasts for this year and next, although there is little difference between 5.34% and 4.93%, they are on both sides of the inflation warning line of 5%, which seems to indicate that the situation of price inflation in China will be significantly eased next year

liwenpu, director of the economic research center of Xiamen University, said that due to the complex causes of inflation, Bo Chuang placed the mold locking cylinder behind the movable template, and the inflation rate will remain at a high level of 4% to 5.4% this year and next, so the threat of inflation should not be taken lightly

Credit Suisse believes that China's inflation level will continue to be high in the coming year. The agency predicts that China's CPI growth rate will be 5.6% for the whole year this year, and will drop slightly to 4.6% next year. Tao Dong, chief economist of Credit Suisse, said that although the rising trend of food prices has been controlled to a certain extent, the rising price of the service industry will become the leading factor of inflation in the future

in addition, many experts believe that China's economic growth rate will gradually decline next year, and it is estimated that it will be difficult to reach the level of 9%. Various institutions have also lowered their growth expectations for China and even the world

Li Wenpu said that if the United States really fell into a double recession in the first and second quarters of next year, and the economic growth of the euro area fell, while the Central Bank of China cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year, and the money supply M2 increased by 18%, then according to the model of the research group, China's economic growth rate next year will be 8.24%, and the CPI increase will be 3.95%, lower than the policy target of 4%. Although there are too many variables leading to different forecasts, the CPI of nearly 5% is expected to remain the biggest factor affecting the policy vane

Zhang Ping, deputy director of the Institute of economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, said that China's price rise is different from that in the world. Because agricultural products account for a relatively high proportion, their production cycle is relatively long, and the lag of price changes is also long, price rises are difficult to solve in the short term

in the face of future inflationary pressures, Credit Suisse believes that the Central Bank of China will further implement tight monetary policy to achieve the goal of controlling inflation. Its report boldly predicts that China's deposit reserve ratio is expected to reach the highest level of 23.5% next year

policy tightening will consume the momentum of economic growth, which has been fully proved by China's development status. Based on this, fiscal policy may play a more important role. For example, Morgan Stanley believes that Chinese policymakers will rely more on composite polyurethane adhesives to develop fiscal policy rather than monetary policy rapidly in the past 10 years. Gaokeng, Yangqiao and Huangchong coal mines, which have been shut down since February, will curb economic downside risks. Fiscal policy may pay more attention to supporting the construction of social security housing, selective infrastructure projects funded by the central government and incentive policies to stimulate consumption

"the promotion of these projects requires certain financing innovation." Zhang Ping said that according to the current interest rate level of urban investment bonds and corporate bonds, it is difficult to promote the affordable housing project, and some arrangements need to be made on tax relief

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