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2022-08-12
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[Guojin research] construction machinery leader: can it surpass the high point of the previous cycle

the next two decades of public funds will focus on pension, science and innovation, intelligent investment, etc. in this regard, the "pension and fund Summit Forum" opened on April 23, and many industry celebrities gathered to discuss the future, thinking about how to better build the third pillar pension, consolidate asset management, and support scientific and technological innovation! []

source: Research Institute

Guojin Securities Research Institute

intelligent manufacturing and new materials research center

machinery and military industry team

investment suggestions

the current market value of construction machinery leaders is still about 30% away from the market value of 150billion at the peak of the last cycle in 2011. We observe the typical representatives of cyclical stocks. The market value of cement industry leader in 2017 has exceeded the high point of the previous cycle in 2011, and the market value of heavy truck industry leader in 2019 has exceeded the high point of the previous cycle in 2010

concrete machinery to a certain extent determines the height of the recovery of the leading performance of this round of construction machinery. We expect that the leading performance of construction machinery is expected to continue to exceed expectations! The performance of Sany, XCMG and Zoomlion in the first quarter of 2019 is expected to double. In, the size deviation and appearance of concrete machinery and truck cranes should comply with the provisions of Table 1. It is expected that the performance elasticity is expected to exceed that of excavators

we are looking for "Caterpillar" in China, focusing on Sany Heavy Industry and looking forward to

industry view

the leading performance of construction machinery in 2019 is expected to reach a record high: the leading performance doubled in the first quarter

Sany Heavy industry expects the net profit of the first quarter of 2019 to be 100 million yuan. Each batch is composed of cold drawn steel bars of the same grade and diameter with a weight of no more than 20 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 100%-120%; Deduction of non performance increased by 134% to 154% year-on-year. XCMG machinery and Zoomlion are also expected to double their growth

why are excavators selling well? What is the gold content of the data? Small excavators contribute to the sales data, and medium excavators still have a large space

the annual sales volume of excavators in 2018 hit a record high. The monthly sales volume of excavators reached a new high in March 2019

in recent years, the proportion of small excavation sales has increased rapidly, accounting for more than 60%. We analyzed in detail the demand structure of various types of excavators (infrastructure, real estate, mining, manufacturing and rural demand). We believe that the sharp increase in the sales of small excavators is closely related to the rapid growth of rural demand (irrigation and water conservancy, labor substitution)

small excavation contributes a lot to sales data, while medium excavation and large excavation contribute a lot to performance. There is still a big gap between the sales volume of China excavate in 2018 and that of 2011. The sales volume of China excavate in 2018 was about 63% of that of 2011

excavator demand: infrastructure real estate + replacement + export + import substitution + environmental protection + manual substitution/loader substitution

(1) real estate and infrastructure demand growth. (2) The replacement demand contributes greatly, and the year is the peak of replacement. (3) Export sales increased significantly, and the localization of import substitution increased. (4) Environmental protection requirements have been improved. (5) Manual replacement of excavators and products such as loaders

the elasticity of demand for concrete machinery and truck cranes in the coming years is better than that of excavators

we judge that excavators will usher in the peak period of replacement in. The service life of concrete machinery and truck crane is longer than that of excavator for about 2 years, which shows that phenolic foam board, as a safe and green new energy-saving building material, may last until the peak of replacement

truck crane: the sales volume increased rapidly in 2018, and it is expected to usher in the peak demand in the next two years

concrete machinery: the sales volume of the industry in 2018 is far from 2011.

concrete machinery: it may determine the height of the recovery of the performance of this round of construction machinery leaders

concrete machinery was once the most profitable business segment of several construction machinery leaders in China, and the market scale at the previous peak was nearly 100billion yuan, Sany's gross profit margin was close to 42%. The income and profit of concrete machinery, the leader of construction machinery, once exceeded that of excavators

risk tips

infrastructure and real estate investment is lower than expected risk, macro policy regulation risk, industry competition intensified risk

I. the market value of cement and heavy truck leaders has exceeded the high point of the previous round. Can construction machinery be copied

1. The market value of conch cement and Weichai Power, the leaders of cement and heavy truck industry, has exceeded the high point of the last cycle.

we observed that the good recyclability of this material can also significantly reduce the typical representatives of waste cycle stocks. Conch cement, the leader of cement industry, Weichai Power, the leader of heavy truck industry, and Sany Heavy Industry, the leader of construction machinery industry

we found that the market value of conch cement in 2017 has exceeded the previous highs in 2007 and 2011 (although the previous round of market value peak of conch cement was in 2007, but the previous round of performance peak was in 2011. We selected 2011 for comparison from the industry cycle). At present, the market value has exceeded 200billion yuan, more than 60% higher than the previous high

the market value of Weichai Power has exceeded 100billion yuan in 2019, exceeding the high point of the previous cycle in 2010

2. The current market value of Sany Heavy Industry, the leader of construction machinery, is 72% of the high point of the previous round.

at present, the market value of Sany Heavy Industry is more than 100billion yuan, but it is still about 30% away from the market value of more than 150billion yuan at the peak of the previous round in 2011

in 2018, Sany's revenue has exceeded the revenue level of 2011, but its net profit in 2018 was only 71% of that in 2011 (8.6 billion yuan). We expect that the net profit level of Sany Heavy Industry in 2019 is expected to exceed that of 2011

3. Construction machinery leader: the performance of the first quarter of 2019 doubled, and the whole year is expected to reach a new high

Sany Heavy Industry (600031): it is expected that the net profit of the first quarter of 2019 will be billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100%-120%; Deduction of non performance increased by 134% to 154% year-on-year

XCMG machinery (000425): expected first quarter results 9 RMB 500million, with a year-on-year increase of 83%-121%

Zoomlion (000157): expected first quarter report 8 RMB 500million, with a year-on-year increase of 126%-179%

we observe the typical representatives of cyclical stocks. The market value of conch cement, the leader of the cement industry, in 2017 has exceeded the high point of the previous cycle in 2011, and the market value of Weichai Power, the leader of the heavy truck industry, in 2019 has exceeded the high point of the previous cycle in 2010

at present, the market value of Sany Heavy Industry is more than 100billion yuan, but it is still about 30% away from the market value of more than 150billion yuan at the peak of the last cycle in 2011. We expect that the leading performance of construction machinery is expected to continue to exceed expectations

in this paper, we mainly discuss whether the construction machinery faucet can surpass the previous cycle? We will take excavators as a typical product for analysis, and take into account the cycle differences of the other two categories of construction machinery - concrete machinery and truck cranes, to analyze the future market value space of Sany Heavy Industry, the leader of construction machinery

II. Excavators: the sales volume in 2018 hit an annual high, and reached a single month high in March 2019

1. The annual sales volume of excavators in 2018 was 203000, a record high

according to the industry statistics of the excavation machinery branch of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 host manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in 2018 sold 203000 sets of various excavation machinery products, an increase of 45% year-on-year. The sales volume of excavators in 2018 exceeded 178000 in 2011, a record high

in 2018, the domestic market sales volume of excavators in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was 184000 units, an increase of 41% year-on-year; The export sales volume was 19000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 98%

2. In March 2019, the sales volume of excavators was 44000 units, and the monthly sales volume hit a record high.

in March 2019, the 25 host machine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold 74779 sets of all kinds of mining machinery products, an increase of 25% year-on-year. The sales volume in the domestic market was 69284 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 24%. The export sales volume was 5450 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 32%

in March 2019, 44278 sets of various mining machinery products were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 16%. The domestic market sales volume (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was 41884, with a year-on-year increase of 14%. The export sales volume was 2377 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 48%

III. why are excavators selling well? What is the gold content of the data? Analysis of market demand and driving factors

1. In recent years, the proportion of small excavation sales has increased rapidly, accounting for more than 60%

we first objectively analyze the sales of various types of excavators, and we find that the sales of large excavation, medium excavation and small excavation are differentiated, with obvious structural changes

in recent years, the proportion of small excavation sales has increased rapidly, and the annual small excavation(

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