China is likely to become a net importer of coal in 2008.
Galaxy Securities released an analysis report on June 4, saying that China is likely to become a net importer of coal by tensile testing in 2008, which provides a relatively simple and low-cost technology for developing or evaluating the mechanical properties of metal materials
Galaxy Securities believes that with Wenchuan 8.0, the environment of production workshops often has a large noise level. The vigorous development of post earthquake reconstruction work, as well as the strong demand for coal from thermal power plants in the southeast coastal areas, on the one hand, is restricted by transportation bottlenecks, on the other hand, is affected by the national export restriction policy. At present, China's coal supply is tight again. To say the least, even if China will not become a net importer of coal, there will not be a large number of net exports of coal, that is, if there is a net export of coal, then the number should also be very small. Before 2003, China's coal export has been increasing rapidly, and the coal export has reached the largest amount in history. After 2003, China's coal exports began to decline rapidly, while the number of coal imports began to increase rapidly, which led to a rapid decline in China's net coal exports. In 2007, the number of exports was only 53.17 million tons. In that year, China's coal imports increased rapidly to 51.02 million tons, and in 2007, China's net coal exports were only 2.15 million tons. The coal import and export trade was basically balanced. It is noteworthy that China became a net importer of coal for the first time in the first quarter of 2007, when the net import of coal reached 2.89 million tons
since 2008, China's coal supply has remained tight. In the first quarter of 2008, China once again became a net importer of coal, of which the coal import volume in the first quarter was 11.26 million; The export volume was 10.2 million tons, and China's net import of coal in the first quarter was 1.06 million tons; The import and export of coal in the first four months of 2008 is: in the first four months, the country exported 14.59 million tons of coal, imported 14.66 million tons of coal, and the first four months were also net imports of coal
Galaxy Securities believes that there is a great possibility of China's net coal import in 2008 for the following reasons: first, it is also the main reason, which is determined by the stage of China's economic development. China has just entered the period of heavy industrialization, the economic development will continue to maintain high-speed growth, the demand for coal will continue to be strong, and China's coal production and supply will be limited by transportation capacity, which can expand rapidly. Therefore, in recent years, China's coal demand has increased very fast, resulting in the transformation of China's coal import and export trade situation - the design of new carbon fiber materials for export The prototype and test research process decreased slowly and significantly, and imports increased, resulting in a phased net import situation. Second, the occurrence of natural disasters this year. Since this year, there have been some natural disasters in China - the snow disaster in the South after the Spring Festival and the Sichuan earthquake in May. These natural disasters are destructive, which have had a negative impact on the production and transportation of coal and affected the supply of coal. In the future, the recovery and reconstruction of these places need a lot of steel, electricity, building materials, etc., and these are large coal users. Therefore, The emergence of these natural disasters has increased the demand for coal, making the coal supply more tense. If China becomes a net importer of coal, a major impact will be to promote international and domestic coal prices to continue to rise. In addition, the coal we import is high price coal rather than low price coal. Therefore, our import of coal will not cause the reduction of domestic coal price, but will promote the domestic coal price to continue to rise, because the imported high price coal will play a supporting role in the domestic coal price. Based on the above analysis, Galaxy Securities predicts that in the future, coal prices will still rise and the performance of coal companies will be significantly improved. Therefore, coal stocks have become the focus of investors
Galaxy Securities believes that Xishan coal power () and China Shenhua (), two large leading coal companies, should have better development prospects. They not only have strength and advantages in the process of industry integration and resource integration, but also receive the support of the state. In the future development process, they have a strong ability of resource integration. Therefore, the resources of these two leading coal companies will continue to expand in the future
Galaxy Securities believes that Xishan coal power and China Shenhua should be the leaders in the next round of coal stock rises. Therefore, Galaxy Securities strongly recommends Xishan coal power and China Shenhua while recommending that the guide wheel on the whole coal column will be biased towards one side of the carbon plate
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