After the sharp rise and fall of Swiss Finance, Li

Zhongrui Finance: after the sharp rise and fall, Liansu is ready to go.

I. Market Overview

most domestic futures varieties fell into a volatile trend in November, and plastic, as the most eye-catching star variety among many varieties, has received special attention

the current prices of Liansu have fallen sharply since the National Day holiday, with a steep decline angle, but the rate of price decline has gradually slowed down since November. As the recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has suppressed the price of Liansu, LLDPE has also experienced a rare sharp decline. The continuous decline in prices has seriously squeezed the profit space of petrochemical producers. Recently, major domestic petrochemical producers have frequently announced measures to reduce production and limit production to raise prices. Liansu futures prices once surged sharply, and spot prices also rose synchronously driven by the strong rise in futures, In November, the state successively issued the 4trillion plan to expand domestic demand and the State Council issued the policy of increasing commodity export tax rebate, which also supported Liansu to deduce a wave of secondary rebound, but whether the rebound can form a reversal remains to be seen

the main 901 contract of plastics has pulled the limit for four consecutive trading days since it saw a phased low of 5760 yuan on November 12, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30%, and the maximum futures price reached 7450 yuan. However, Bulls' confidence in continuing to long at this price was obviously insufficient, and they were stubbornly blocked by bears. Finally, it ended with a sharp fall. Only on the 19th, the amplitude of futures price reached 10% on the same day. After the rebound aborted, there were continuous falls in the limit for two trading days, and even plastics crazy interpretation of the roller coaster market, However, the enthusiasm of market fund speculation has not cooled down. After the sharp fall, the futures price launched a counterattack at the line of 6200 yuan, and the futures price has pulled two limit plates in a row. The fund speculation is ferocious. How to interpret the future market depends on whether the relationship between supply and demand has changed

II. Main influencing factors

1 The global economic recession has led to shrinking demand

the global economy has evolved from a financial crisis to a real economic crisis. Although major economies such as the United States, Europe and China have all adopted interest rate cuts and economic stimulus plans, China's plastic extruder industry is moving towards a healthy and sustainable development, but the overall economic situation does not seem to stop deteriorating. The global economic recession has led to weak demand, which eventually led to a general slump in bulk commodities, The economic data of the world's major economies showed a decline in varying degrees in the third quarter. Europe and the United States: poor economic data in the United States and Europe continue to plague the market. The U.S. Department of Commerce said on the 25th that the U.S. GDP fell by 0.5% in the third quarter, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2001. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on Wednesday that the U.S. durable goods orders fell by 6.2% in October, the largest decline since October 2006. The monthly rate of personal expenditure fell by 1.0% in October, the largest decline since September 2001. Data released by the U.S. Department of labor on Wednesday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 14000 to 529000 in the week of November 22, but it was still at a high level. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on Wednesday that new home sales in the United States fell 5.3% in October from the previous month, with an annual rate of 433000 households, the lowest level in 17 years; Data released by the European Bureau of statistics showed that the initial value of gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone in the third quarter shrank by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter, the first consecutive quarterly decline since 1999. Asia Pacific region: the latest "China Economic Quarterly Report" released by the world bank yesterday predicted that due to the impact of the financial storm, the weighted average annual growth rate of global GDP this year is expected to drop from 4.1% in 2007 to 3.0%. Next year, the global GDP growth rate will fall sharply to about 1%, and will not recover until 2010, while China's GDP growth rate next year will also fall to about 7.5%. Japan's economy fell into recession for the first time since 2001, and it became a difficult brother with Europe in the global economic downturn. Data released on the 17th showed that Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.1% from the previous quarter from July to September this year, while the annualized rate was negative by 0.4%. As the global economic crisis intensifies and causes further demand concerns, it is difficult for global commodities to escape the negative impact of the economic downturn in the short term. Therefore, affected by the overall economic environment, LLDPE is difficult to walk alone

2. The crude oil fell below the $50 mark, which was not coincident with the main needle.

on January 21, the NYMEX light crude oil contract fell below the $50 per barrel mark, with a minimum of $48.35 per barrel, breaking through the low point of January 2007. Affected by the global economic downturn, the international crude oil has gradually changed from the original short supply to the situation of oversupply, and the weak demand has led to the sharp decline in crude oil prices. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand in 2009. The IEA lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand next year by 670000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.8%, the highest reduction in crude oil demand since 1996. Meanwhile, OPEC said in its monthly report on the crude oil market in November that the average daily demand for crude oil in the world in 2008 is expected to be 86.19 million barrels, lower than the 86.45 million barrels previously expected by the organization; The average daily demand of world crude oil in 2009 is expected to be 86.68 million barrels, lower than the 87.21 million barrels previously expected by the organization. Therefore, major international institutions and organizations have reduced oil demand, making it difficult for crude oil prices to get rid of the weak trend. It is difficult to break through the technical barrier of oil storage. As of November 21, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 7.3 million barrels to 320.8 million barrels, the gasoline inventory increased by 1.9 million barrels to 200.5 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory decreased by 200000 barrels to 126.7 million barrels. The continuous increase in inventory also shows that the current U.S. crude oil demand is very depressed. However, due to the recent sharp decline in crude oil, there is a rebound demand in short-term technology. In addition, due to the expectation that OPEC may further reduce the organization's daily oil production at the December meeting, there was a short covering of CFCT crude oil at the end of last week, and speculative funds significantly reduced their short positions. The net position of the fund also changed from a net short position of more than 50000 barrels to a net long position of more than 10000 barrels, The net position direction of international funds also shows the hype direction of the market's short-term speculative power to a certain extent. Therefore, in an environment where the fundamentals are still relatively pessimistic, short selling thinking should also be highly vigilant against the possible sharp rise in the market. At present, crude oil is in a mixed situation of long and short, and the medium and short term may tend to fluctuate widely. As the transmission ability of crude oil to plastic prices is weakened below $60, the influence of plastic on the decline of crude oil prices will gradually decline, Liansu may temporarily get rid of the constraints of crude oil and take the road of supply and demand alone

note: 1 Data sources are Wenhua Caijing US crude oil price index and Brent crude oil price index

2 Data collection time: November 2007 11.21

3. Ethylene monomer prices gradually stabilized

Asian ethylene monomers showed signs of stabilizing at the $00 mark of recycling in April after a rapid decline from the high of $1360 in September. They fluctuated around $400 online and offline throughout November. Even if international crude oil continued to decline, ethylene market prices in Northeast and Southeast Asia showed strong resistance. Ethylene prices were close to the cost range, and inventories were still at a high level due to weak demand, The market transaction is light, and the price is still difficult to turn into a bull in the short term. The import price of ethylene in Asia converted into the cost of plastic is about 6000 yuan, which is lower than the domestic spot cost. Therefore, this also restricts the momentum of the sharp rebound of LLDPE futures price

note: 1 The data source is Wenhua Finance Asia ethylene spot price quotation

2 Data collection time: September 2008 11.24

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