Most affected by high oil prices and overcapacity,

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Affected by high oil prices and overcapacity, the chemical fiber industry is in a difficult situation

affected by the high international oil prices, the profitability of many chemical fiber enterprises in 2008 has deteriorated, some small and medium-sized enterprises have closed down, and it is difficult for the chemical fiber industry to leave the country

more than 90% of the products in the chemical fiber industry are petroleum derivatives. Under the condition that the international oil price continues to run at a high level, the contradiction of resource constraints is becoming increasingly prominent in the scheme of manufacturing flame retardant plastics. Due to the large scale of China's chemical fiber industry and the overall excess supply, it often does not have the ability to transfer costs to the downstream through price negotiation, resulting in the chemical fiber manufacturing industry being at the lowest end of the industrial chain profits for a long time

affected by high oil prices, international chemical giants have raised prices across the board. From basic petrochemical products such as ethylene and propylene to raw materials for direct production of chemical fibers such as acrylonitrile, PTA and caprolactam, a new round of continuous price increases has begun. However, the prices of synthetic fibers such as acrylic fiber, polyester fiber and nylon fiber rarely rise. Even if they are forced to raise prices, the range is far lower than that of raw materials

relevant data show that the gross profit margin of the crude oil industry in the first April was 48.47%, which is a typical profiteering industry; The gross profit margin of polyester raw material industry is 10.18%, and that of polyester fiber industry is only 4.56%. Considering the three expenses, there is basically no profit

overcapacity trapped in a strange circle "in fact, the chemical fiber industry has also experienced a period of high prosperity." Wang Qianjin said, "yesterday's Golden Phoenix, today's bitter cauliflower" is a true portrayal of the huge contrast between the two major industries of viscose and spandex in the past year. "

due to the sharp rise in product prices and the good production and marketing situation, the profits of the viscose and spandex industries achieved 97.46% and 90.91% respectively in 2007. However, since 2008, with the extreme expansion of investment and expansion speed, the boom cycle of viscose, spandex and other industries has become shorter and shorter, which has also become a strange circle for the chemical fiber industry in recent years. The data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 27 also showed that the profit of the national chemical fiber industry from January to may dropped by 246.8 percentage points compared with the same period in 2007

affected by factors such as the accelerated expansion of production capacity and the slow start of downstream demand, the prices of spandex and viscose have plummeted, the product inventory has risen sharply, and the profitability of material enterprises designed according to the existing chemical composition, structure and corresponding characteristics of materials has decreased significantly. "The price of spandex 40d has dropped from about 70000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2008 to 47000 yuan/ton now, with a decrease of more than 30%. Although the prices of upstream raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI have also decreased in the same period, the decrease is only about 10%, which is far lower than the decline of Spandex Products, resulting in a sharp decline in spandex industry profits." Xinxiang Chemical fiber Securities Department said. In his opinion, the gross profit margin of the spandex industry reached more than 40% during the peak period in 2007, and it would be very good if it could be maintained at 15% in 2008

unlike other chemical fiber sub industries, the high crude oil price has no direct impact on the viscose sub industry and other materials with Dirac band like structures. However, the rapid release of new production capacity, the downturn of downstream demand and the change of export tax rebate policy also make the viscose industry in trouble. The price of viscose filament has been hovering at the level of 32500 yuan/ton for a long time, with very light sales. The filament inventory has reached the output of the whole industry for nearly three months, and the gross profit margin of the product has also dropped from more than 20% at the peak to less than 10% today; The price of viscose staple fiber has continued to fall from the high of 22200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 15400 yuan/ton for the equipment manufacturers of recycled plastic granulator, with a cumulative decline of 44%

liuhongchun told that under the background of sluggish downstream demand, there was no place to release the excess capacity, and some chemical fiber enterprises could only manage to maintain by limiting production, reducing production, stopping production for maintenance, etc. It is reported that the current production reduction in the industry is between 20% and 30%

"it is difficult for the textile industry to make a fundamental change for the time being. Under the joint constraints of capacity expansion and sluggish demand, the chemical fiber industry will also linger in another round of downturn." Industry insiders said, "at a time when the industry as a whole is in the doldrums again, industrial structure adjustment and differentiated development are imminent; improving the differentiation rate of fibers and the added value of chemical fiber products is an important means to improve the profitability and competitiveness of the industry, especially when the current industry cycle is falling and the boom is declining, differentiated fiber varieties can better avoid industry risks."

insiders said that those enterprises that vigorously develop differentiated fiber varieties ahead of their peers, pay attention to market demand, continuously develop new products and occupy the high-end product market are widely favored by investors in this round of downturn, such as hailide, which provides polyester industrial yarn for automobile safety belts and tires, Yantai spandex, which has made breakthroughs and progress in the aramid field with high technical barriers, and Yunwei and Shanxi sanwei, which have continuously extended and improved the industrial chain under the background of high oil prices and continue to develop in the field of coal chemical industry

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